The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

Abstract Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) is recommended for type 1 diabetes, but the supporting evidence derives almost entirely from high-income settings, and the technology is not routinely available in Kenya's public sector. This prospective study assessed the feasibility and sustainability of CGM implementation and changes in glycemic control after three months of use in a public-sector pediatric diabetes clinic in Nairobi. Forty patients aged 4 to 25 years, recruited by proportional quota sampling across age bands at Kenyatta National Hospital, used an intermittently scanned sensor system across five visits combining sensor data review, standardized diabetes education and insulin titration. Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) was measured at baseline and three months, alongside sensor-derived glucose metrics, wear time and diabetes-related admissions. Thirty-eight patients (95%) completed the study; median sensor wear time was 89.0%. Adjusted mean HbA1c fell from 10.82% to 9.42%, a difference of minus 1.40 percentage points (95% confidence interval minus 2.07 to minus 0.68). Time in target range (3.9 to 10.0 mmol/L) rose from 32.4% to 38.0%, and time above 10.0 mmol/L fell from 63.1% to 56.9%. Time below 3.9 mmol/L rose minimally, from 3.7% to 4.2%, while time below 3.0 mmol/L did not increase significantly, by 0.2%. Diabetes-related admissions fell from 7 of 40 in the three months before the study to 1 of 38 by its end. The uncontrolled design and small sample preclude an unbiased effect estimate. Since CGM efficacy is established internationally, these data add local evidence of transferability, which national guidelines and benefit-package decisions require.

Introduction: The continuing high and inequitable global malaria burden requires improved methods to understand trends and target control. Current methods often involve infection prevalence surveys, but additional parasitological measures could increase precision in estimating infection burdens of communities. Methods: Focusing on the country with most malaria globally, examinations of slides from 10,651 children under five sampled in the 2021 national Malaria Indicator Survey in Nigeria were performed to measure asexual parasite densities in infected children and discriminate sexual stages and species. Variation in these indices among the six different geopolitical zones and 37 individual states including the Federal Capital Territory were compared with the variation indicated by infection prevalence alone. Results: Among the six major geopolitical zones, only one had significantly higher asexual parasite prevalence than others, but parasite densities within infected children revealed more significant variation among the different zones. Comparing results for 2021 with previous data from 2018, one zone showed lower asexual parasite prevalence and two had lower sexual parasite prevalence, but three had higher asexual parasite densities in infected children. Variation in parasite densities among individual states also highlighted significant geographical and temporal differences, extending the detection of heterogeneity within each geopolitical zone. Overall trends were driven by the predominant parasite species Plasmodium falciparum as prevalence and density of the other species were much lower. Conclusions: Findings indicate that understanding complex patterns of geographical and temporal variation is enhanced by including asexual parasite density measurement, providing opportunities for more precise targeting of malaria control within high burden countries.

Aedes albopictus (Skuse), the Asian tiger mosquito, is a highly competent arboviral vector whose range has expanded substantially across the United States over the past four decades. Despite predictive models placing Nebraska within the species' climatically suitable range, its establishment status in the state has remained poorly characterized. Here, we report results from a nine-year mosquito surveillance program (2017-2025) conducted across 44 Nebraska counties in collaboration with the Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services. Ae. albopictus was detected in five counties, with sustained, annually increasing populations documented in Richardson, Douglas, and Lancaster counties. Richardson County recorded continuous detections during 2017-2025, with proportional representation rising to 60.50% of collected mosquitoes by 2025. In Douglas and Lancaster counties, temporal advancement of first seasonal detection in 2024 and 2025 provide evidence consistent with successful overwintering rather than annual reintroduction. A cumulative degree-day model predicted adult emergence in mid-May across all county-year combinations, consistently preceding trap deployment by two to seven weeks and revealing a systematic early-season surveillance gap. Generalized linear mixed-effects models indicated that trap-level detection persistence, rather than urban location, was the primary predictor of yearly Ae. albopictus positivity, suggesting that current invasion dynamics are driven by focal source populations. These findings provide strong evidence for the establishment of Ae. albopictus in eastern Nebraska and highlight the need for earlier seasonal surveillance and standardized criteria to define establishment in northward-expanding vector populations.

Wolbachia-based interventions were less effective in achieving introgression in Rio de Janeiro than other settings. Reduced introgression occurred in locations where dengue was historically high, raising concerns of inequity. We examined factors affecting Wolbachia introgression in Rio through trajectory modeling, spatiotemporal Bayesian models, and Ae. aegypti abundance estimation. During the intervention (2017-2020), Wolbachia introgression was 26% (median; IQR,14-44%), with four distinct trajectories. Despite receiving more releases, densely populated areas with low socioeconomic status had lower introgression. In spatiotemporally explicit multivariable regressions, higher Ae. aegypti abundance, temperature, population density and lower socioeconomic status were associated with reduced introgression. Improved characterization of Ae. aegypti abundance and other structural/environmental predictors of introgression could be used to calibrate release doses to ensure equitable benefits from Wolbachia interventions.

Background: Severe malaria remains a major cause of hospitalization in malaria-endemic sub-Saharan Africa, and anemia is among its most frequent severity criteria. Data on the impact of anemia on hospital length of stay (LOS) among adults with severe malaria remain limited in Central Africa. We assessed the impact of anemia on LOS among adults hospitalized for severe malaria in Brazzaville, Republic of Congo. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional, descriptive, and analytic study of medical records from adult patients ([&ge;]18 years) diagnosed with severe malaria (WHO criteria) and admitted to four hospitals in Brazzaville between January 2020 and December 2024. We dichotomized LOS as short (<5 days) or prolonged ([&ge;]5 days). Multivariable logistic regression, using a backward stepwise procedure, identified factors independently associated with prolonged LOS; isolated hemoglobinuria served as the reference severity category. Results: Among 523 patients hospitalized for severe malaria, 296 met the inclusion criteria. Median age was 25.5 years (IQR 20-40); 51.7% were female, and 82.1% had a low socioeconomic status. Median hemoglobin was 10.55 g/dL, and median LOS was 4 days (IQR 3-5). In multivariable analysis, prolonged LOS was independently associated with delay to consultation (aOR 1.25/day, 95% CI 1.09-1.44), isolated anemia (aOR 7.07, 1.23-40.55), convulsions (aOR 5.86, 1.81-18.97), prostration (aOR 4.42, 1.21-16.2), and impaired consciousness (aOR 4.29, 1.17-15.7). The strongest associations involved combined severity criteria: anemia with prostration (aOR 8.58), anemia with jaundice or hemoglobinuria (aOR 16.21), and impaired consciousness with anemia (aOR 33.31). Conclusions: Anemia is a major, potentially modifiable determinant of prolonged hospitalization in adults with severe malaria, with a markedly amplified effect when combined with neurologic impairment. Early anemia screening, improved access to safe blood transfusion, and reduced delays to care could shorten hospital stays and ease the burden on health systems in this setting.

Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) remains a growing global health priority, with disproportionate underdiagnosis, delayed diagnosis, and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite the introduction of the Life for a Child (LFaC) programme in Kenya, which provides free insulin, glucose-monitoring supplies, and specialist education, no published studies have examined the determinants of glycaemic control among Kenyan children and adolescents with T1DM. This study aimed to determine the proportion of children and adolescents achieving good glycaemic control and to identify the socio-demographic and clinical determinants of glycaemic control at a tertiary hospital in Kenya. This cross-sectional study enrolled 160 children and adolescents with T1DM attending the paediatric diabetes clinic at Kenyatta National Hospital, Nairobi, between September 2025 and May 2026. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected through structured interviews and physical examination. Poor glycaemic control was defined as HbA1c >7.5%. Associations between candidate determinants and glycaemic control were assessed using chi-square or Fisher's exact tests. Variables with p<0.2 on bivariate analysis were entered into a multivariable logistic regression model; Firth's penalized-likelihood method was used given the small number of participants achieving good control. Only 9 participants (5.6%) achieved the target HbA1c of [&le;]7.5% (mean HbA1c 11.02%, SD {+/-}2.29), and only 5 of 133 patients (3.8%) had [&ge;]70% of glucometer readings within the target blood glucose range (3.9-10.0 mmol/L).On bivariate analysis, household income (p=0.026) and self-monitored blood glucose (SMBG) frequency (p=0.018) were significantly associated with glycaemic control. In an exploratory multivariable regression analysis (Firth penalized logistic regression, given the small number of participants with good control), only SMBG frequency [&ge;]4 tests/day remained independently associated with lower odds of poor control (adjusted OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.04-0.84, p=0.028); the effect of household income was attenuated after adjustment. Glycaemic control remains markedly poor among children and adolescents with T1DM in this Kenyan tertiary hospital setting despite structured programmatic support. Frequency of self-monitoring, rather than household income alone, was the factor most strongly associated with glycaemic control, suggesting that strengthening access to glucose-testing supplies and supporting their consistent use should be prioritised in care, alongside attention to socioeconomic barriers. Longitudinal studies are needed to confirm these associations.

Typhoid intestinal perforation (TIP) is a late complication of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi infection, and blood cultures, if available, are often negative at this stage, making etiologic confirmation challenging. In areas without access to blood culture diagnostics, TIP incidence can serve as a proxy for enteric fever burden. Antibodies against hemolysin E (HlyE) and S. Typhi lipopolysaccharide (LPS) are promising serologic markers for typhoid, but their diagnostic utility for TIP remains unclear. In this study, we assessed the diagnostic accuracy of anti-HlyE and anti-LPS IgG and IgA antibodies measured by kinetic enzyme immunoassay in children undergoing emergency laparotomy for acute abdomen in Niger. Dried blood spots (DBS) were collected pre-operatively (baseline) and within 30 days post-hospital discharge (convalescence). Patients classified intraoperatively as TIP (n = 341) or as confirmed non-typhoid-related alternative etiology (i.e., controls, n = 48) were included in this serologic analysis. The primary analyses were conducted in a longitudinal sub-cohort of 122 TIP cases and 33 controls in whom all four anti-HlyE and anti-LPS IgA and IgG responses were measured at baseline and at convalescence. Anti-HlyE IgA and anti-LPS IgA were additionally measured at baseline in the full analytic cohort. In the primary analysis, all antigen-antibody isotype combinations distinguished TIP cases from controls with high accuracy: anti-HlyE IgA (AUC 0.94), anti-HlyE IgG (AUC 0.94), anti-LPS IgA (AUC 0.96), and anti-LPS IgG (AUC 0.96). Anti-HlyE IgA and anti-LPS IgA performed similarly in the full cohort (AUC 0.93 and 0.93, respectively), supporting the representativeness of the sub-cohort. Anti-LPS IgG showed the best overall performance (99% sensitivity, 94% specificity), exceeding that of all other individual markers, and combining markers did not improve diagnostic accuracy. Diagnostic performance at convalescence was similar to or lower than that observed at presentation. Overall, anti-HlyE and anti-LPS antibodies showed high diagnostic accuracy for TIP at presentation, extending the potential utility of these serologic markers for supporting the diagnosis of typhoid-associated intestinal perforation and improving surveillance of severe typhoid disease when patients present with late-stage complications. Our findings show that serologic testing could improve case detection and burden estimation of enteric fever and its complications in resource-limited settings.

Background. Nigeria's reported Lassa fever case fatality ratio (CFR) rose from 18.9% at week 23 of 2025 to 25.0% in 2026, prompting concerns over failing clinical care. Because surveillance artefacts can also alter CFRs, candidate mechanisms that published data can resolve were identified and evaluated. Methods. This ecological study extracted weekly state-level counts from 474 Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention situation reports (2017-2026). Per a pre-specified plan, years were compared at phase-matched points, year-on-year CFR changes were decomposed into within-state and between-state components, and tipping-point ascertainment shifts calculated. Weekly incident and cumulative published totals were compared post hoc. Findings. Of 11 candidate mechanisms, 2 could be evaluated fully and 5 in part. On weekly incident counts, 2026 did not differ from 2025 at the phase-matched midpoint (+0.3 percentage points, 95% CI -5.0 to 7.6); within-state (-1.1, 95% CI -4.7 to 3.0) and between-state (+0.5, -2.0 to 2.9) components spanned zero. Conversely, the published cumulative CFR was 5.4 to 6.2 percentage points higher because 70 deaths were added retrospectively by week 36 outside weekly reports. Reconciling cumulative figures would require 279 missed survivors (6% of suspected cases not confirmed). Interpretation. The 2026 CFR rise came from deaths added to cumulative totals outside the weekly counts, and published data cannot attribute it to care. Endemic zoonotic CFRs cannot serve as clinical outcome measures unless testing volumes, deaths added late, and post-mortem sampling are published alongside case counts. Funding. US NSF-NIH-NIFA EEID; UK BBSRC; Birgitta Sintring Fellowship (Uppsala University).

Background: Chronic pharmaceutical stock outs hinder Universal Health Coverage in Ethiopia. To address this, the Ministry of Health introduced the electronic Logistics Management Information System for inventory visibility and Auditable Pharmaceutical Transactions and Services for financial management. However, no national study has tested their combined impact. This study evaluated the individual and synergistic effects of electronic Logistics Management Information System and Auditable Pharmaceutical Transactions and Services on essential commodity availability across Ethiopian public healthcare facilities. Methods; We conducted a secondary analysis of the 2024/2025 Ethiopian Service Provision Assessment dataset utilizing 1245 public facilities nested within 125 clusters. The primary outcome was optimal essential commodity availability (zero stock outs and 100% tracer commodity presence). A two-level mixed-effects logistic regression model with an interaction term evaluated synergy, reporting Adjusted Odds Ratios with 95% Confidence Intervals. Results; Overall optimal availability was 54.2% (95% CI; 51.4%-57.0%). Implementation rates were 41.2% for eLMIS, 38.2% for APTS and 26.5% for dual implementation. Facilities using eLMIS alone (AOR = 2.15; 95% CI: 1.52-3.04) and APTS alone (AOR = 1.82; 95% CI; 1.28-2.58) showed higher security. Dual implementation showed a profound synergistic effect (AOR = 4.32; 95% CI; 3.25-5.74, p < 0.001). Positive predictors included functional cold chains (AOR = 2.08), qualified staffing (AOR = 1.68), hub proximity (AOR = 1.58) and urban settings (AOR = 1.95). The model explained 66.2% of regional variance. Conclusion; Dual implementation of electronic Logistics Management Information System and Auditable Pharmaceutical Transactions and Services creates a powerful synergistic impact on pharmaceutical availability. Synchronized national scale-up and cold chain investments are urgently needed to achieve supply chain resilience and Universal Health Coverage in Ethiopia.

Urogenital schistosomiasis, caused by Schistosoma haematobium, remains a major public health challenge among school-aged children in rural Ghana. Although urogenital indicators are well-established, systemic hepatic biomarker alterations in post-mass drug administration pediatric settings remain poorly characterized. This cross-sectional study evaluated point-of-care urinalysis profiles alongside a panel of serum hepatic and renal biomarkers in 174 children (aged 3 to 16 years) from the Sene West District, Ghana. Active infection (urine microscopy egg detection) was identified in 84 participants (48.3%, median egg count = 4.50 eggs/10 mL, IQR: 1.00 - 9.25). Active infection was strongly associated with microhematuria (57.1% vs. 11.1%, p < 0.001), proteinuria (42.9% vs. 22.2%, p = 0.004), and leukocyturia (27.4% vs. 4.4%, p < 0.001). Children with active infection also demonstrated a higher frequency of composite categorical hepatic biomarker alterations (60.7% vs. 37.8%, p = 0.002), whereas categorical renal alterations showed no significant difference (p = 0.332). Controlling for age and sex, multivariable logistic regression confirmed active infection as a significant independent predictor of composite hepatic biomarker alterations (aOR = 2.54, 95% CI: 1.37 - 4.69, p = 0.003), but not renal alterations (aOR = 1.40, p = 0.359). Continuous medians for individual serum biomarkers showed no significant differences between groups. Combining composite hepatic biomarker thresholds with routine dipstick screening improves the detection of subclinical morbidity in pediatric field settings.

Brazil has one of the highest dengue burdens globally, with transmission influenced by climate events. Yet, the effects of compound climate extremes on dengue risk and prediction have not been quantified to date. Using a Bayesian spatiotemporal model of monthly dengue cases across 435 health regions from 2010 to 2025, we estimated relative risk associated with interacting long-lag and short-lag drought indicators and temperature anomalies across nine Koppen-Geiger climatic zones, adjusting for absolute temperature and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Long-lag dry, mid-lag warm and short-lag wet conditions were associated with the highest relative risk in five climatic zones, with temperature anomalies modifying hydrometeorological dynamics more strongly in temperate than tropical areas. Climate covariates improved the prediction of case counts and outbreaks compared to baseline models at lead times of 1, 3, 6 and 12 months, and for the upcoming season 5 months ahead. Improvements were greatest in the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest. Recent dengue incidence provided the greatest improvement at the 1-month lead, whereas combining incidence with climate information performed best at 3- and 6-month leads. We extended our framework to weekly state-level predictions of the season ahead to align with national public health planning. We proposed a multi-staged dengue forecasting approach to enhance early warning and response across Brazil.

While mosquito invasions and associated pathogens are increasingly prominent in Europe, evidence gaps remain for many northerly regions where proactive management interventions may be most effective. At the regional periphery of Europe, there remains a significant knowledge gap concerning mosquito vector distributions in Northern Ireland. This study aimed to address this major gap by systematically surveying larval and adult mosquito populations in key habitats (ponds, reedbeds, saltmarsh, wet grasslands, wet woodlands, and urban gardens). We further identified environmental drivers of important vector species abundance and screened collected specimens with molecular techniques to identify presence of cryptic human-biting vector species. In Northern Ireland, mosquitoes (including potential bridge vectors of West Nile and Usutu viruses) were found to be widely distributed. Between May and August 2025, a total of 2430 mosquitoes (951 adults and 1479 larvae) were collected over 196 trap nights and 76 larval collections. Collections encompassed 17 species, with Culex pipiens/torrentium being the most widely distributed and abundant taxon recorded. Mosquito abundances were greatest in reedbed habitats, related negatively with rainfall and peaked in June and July. A subset of Culex pipiens/torrentium mosquitoes were identified to species/biotype level using PCR, with the majority (89.3%) identified as Culex pipiens pipiens and 9.3% as Culex torrentium. Importantly, the first detections of Culex pipiens/molestus hybrids (1.8%) on the island of Ireland were found. This work underscores the wide, yet previously undocumented abundance and distribution of potential zoonotic vectors in Northern Ireland and provides an important baseline for management planning and future research, while contributing to broader understandings of environmental population drivers and distributions.

Background: Preventive chemotherapy via single-dose benzimidazoles remains the core strategy for soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control. However, single-dose regimens often yield sub-optimal clearance against species such as Trichuris trichiura and hookworm. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the comparative efficacy of repeated-dose versus standard single-dose albendazole or mebendazole regimens in paediatric populations. Methods: Registered prospectively on PROSPERO (CRD420261491616), a comprehensive search of PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar identified clinical trials comparing repeated-dose against single-dose albendazole or mebendazole in paediatric STH infections. Primary outcomes were cure rate (CR) and egg reduction rate (ERR). Random-effects models synthesized pooled odds ratios (OR) and mean differences (MD). Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane RoB 2 tool. Results: Five randomized clinical trials (N = 1,718 participants) met the inclusion criteria. Overall, repeated dosing demonstrated significant superiority in cure rate (pooled OR = 4.47, 95% CI: 1.58-12.67; I{superscript 2} = 92%) and egg reduction rate (pooled MD = 0.17, 95% CI: 0.01-0.32; I{superscript 2} = 87%). Discussion: Repeated-dose benzimidazole regimens offer superior overall therapeutic efficacy compared to standard single-dose administration in children. However, this therapeutic advantage is drug-specific: multi-dose albendazole consistently enhances parasite clearance across trial settings, whereas multi-dose mebendazole exhibits variable performance and lacks conclusive superiority over single dosing. Conclusion: Transitioning to targeted, multi-dose albendazole protocols--rather than mebendazole--may serve as an effective public health intervention to eliminate residual parasite reservoirs in high-transmission endemic regions.

Genomic tools can support malaria control policy through surveillance of Plasmodium falciparum populations, tracking antimalarial drug resistance, pfhrp2/3 deletions that compromise rapid diagnostic tests, and selection at the circumsporozoite protein (PfCSP) vaccine target, as well as through molecular correction of therapeutic efficacy studies (TES). Multiplex Amplicons for Drug, Diagnostic, Diversity, and Differentiation Haplotypes using Targeted Resequencing (MAD4HatTeR), a comprehensive amplicon sequencing panel covering up to 276 targets, supports these applications but is tailored to research rather than routine programmatic use. We developed P. falciparum Public Health Amplicon Sequencing Tool (PfPHAST), a 56-target derivative of MAD4HatTeR spanning drug resistance loci, pfhrp2/3 deletion, PfCSP genotyping, non-falciparum species identification, and 20 high-heterozygosity microhaplotype loci for TES classification. We compared PfPHAST and MAD4HatTeR using laboratory strain controls, including two-strain dilution series and a five-strain mixture, across parasite densities of 100 to 10,000 parasites/L. At matched per-target depth, PfPHAST achieved a higher quality-control pass rate than MAD4HatTeR (94.4% versus 90.0%) and distributed reads more evenly across targets. The panels showed comparable recall and precision for drug resistance codons and microhaplotypes, reaching near-complete recall above 40% within-sample allele frequency (WSAF) at all densities, with reduced sensitivity for minor alleles below 10% WSAF at low parasite density in both panels. Observed and expected WSAF correlated strongly for both panels, and both resolved a five-strain polyclonal mixture, including a 5% minor strain. By concentrating sequencing capacity on targets of greatest programmatic relevance, PfPHAST offers a scalable, lower-cost alternative to comprehensive research panels without sacrificing performance on shared targets, complementing MAD4HatTeR for routine molecular malaria surveillance.

BackgroundNipah virus (NiV) is a zoonotic pathogen in the Henipavirus genus that causes severe, often fatal disease in humans. The World Health Organization and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) have designated NiV as a priority pathogen with pandemic potential. While CEPI is funding research on medical countermeasures, including vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), there remains limited understanding of how at-risk countries will use them. This study aims to address this gap through targeted interviews and demand forecasting for 10 countries: Australia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Methodology/Principal FindingsInterviews with country and global stakeholders gathered data on regional sentiment, financing, and affordability. Profiles were developed to summarize each countrys perceived outbreak risk and their likely use of countermeasures. Demand was estimated by integrating these perspectives into models of likely country-level responses to three NiV outbreak scenarios: Expected, Amplified, and Extended. In the Expected scenario, countries focused on reactive use with global annual demand ranging from approximately 800 to 5,000 doses for vaccine-only, mAb-only, and combination interventions. Ring strategies were preferred given outbreak size and infrequency. Demand was highest for vaccine-only and combination interventions, with lower demand for mAbs-only due to affordability concerns and less familiarity in Bangladesh and India. In Amplified and Extended scenarios, countries expanded their responses to include preventive campaigns for healthcare workers and rural populations. These campaigns would require approximately 410,000 and 6,300,000 doses, respectively, if introduced in all 10 countries. Conclusions/SignificanceThis study has revealed existing sentiments regarding Nipah disease and interventions and modeled demand across three outbreak scenarios. Given global annual demand based on current epidemiology, Nipah countermeasure markets are unlikely to be commercially viable solely on routine country-financed demand. Instead, market health will require external financing and stockpile mechanisms to maintain demand between sporadic outbreaks. Author SummaryNipah virus (NiV), which causes severe and often fatal disease in humans, is recognized by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) as a priority pathogen with pandemic potential. In response, CEPI has supported the development of vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (mAb). However, limited evidence exists on how at-risk countries will deploy these medical countermeasures. We interviewed key decision-makers across 10 at-risk countries, along with global experts on NiV, to better understand disease prioritization, financing and affordability considerations, and countermeasure preferences. Interview findings informed the development of a demand forecast in response to Nipah outbreaks of varying intensity. At expected outbreak levels, countries focused their response on reactive strategies given outbreak size and infrequency. As outbreaks grew in size, countries considered expanding their response to include preventive campaigns targeting healthcare workers and at-risk, rural populations. This study provides new insights into country-level perspectives on NiV and medical countermeasures and quantifies expected demand across three outbreak scenarios and 10 countries. Our findings can provide a foundation for the strategic development of an international Nipah countermeasure stockpile, designed to address episodic NiV outbreaks and enhance pandemic preparedness.

Tick-borne disease risk reflects the combined influence of vector abundance, pathogen prevalence, human exposure, and seasonal activity, yet these components are rarely integrated at the county level. We developed species-specific ecological risk scores for three medically important tick species (Acari: Ixodidae): Amblyomma americanum (L.), Dermacentor variabilis (Say), and Ixodes scapularis Say, across all 102 Illinois counties using data from 2019 to 2022. County-level predicted tick abundance and pathogen prevalence were scaled and combined using equal weights to generate primary vector-level risk scores. Robustness to the equal-weight assumption was evaluated by systematically varying the relative weights assigned to abundance and pathogen prevalence, while a separate sensitivity analysis incorporated reported tick-bite incidence where available. Associations with human disease were evaluated using negative binomial regression of tick-borne disease case counts on the corresponding risk scores, with county population included as an offset. Monthly phenology indicators were constructed by integrating human disease cases, reported tick bites, and sampled tick abundance and were evaluated in relation to temperature and precipitation. Seasonal risk was estimated by combining county-level vector risk with species-specific monthly phenology, generating monthly risk surfaces that were deployed through an interactive R Shiny application. Higher risk scores were significantly associated with greater disease case rates for each tick species. County rankings were highly stable under moderate changes in abundance and prevalence weighting. Seasonal activity differed among species, with A. americanum and D. variabilis showing concentrated warm-season risk and I. scapularis exhibiting a broader seasonal profile. These county-level seasonal risk maps identify where and when relative tick-borne disease risk is elevated in Illinois, supporting targeted prevention, surveillance, and clinical awareness.

Artemisinin partial resistance (ART R) associated Plasmodium falciparum Kelch13 mutations is expanding across Africa. However, their population level consequences remain poorly understood, particularly in settings of moderate to high malaria transmission. We investigated associations between Kelch13 and partner drug mutation prevalence and monthly confirmed malaria incidence across 16 Ugandan districts from 2017 to 2022, using integrated molecular, epidemiological, climatic, malaria control, and antimalarial resistance data and negative binomial regression. Combined prevalence of WHO validated and candidate Kelch13 mutations increased over the study period. Each 10 percentage point increase in Kelch13 prevalence was associated with a 13.1% higher incidence after multivariable adjustment (aIRR 1.131, 95% CI 1.090 to 1.174). Furthermore, each 10% increase in pfcrt K76T was associated with a 24% increase in malaria transmission. As expected, ITN distribution >80%, IRS coverage >90%, and higher altitude were associated with lower incidence, whereas temperatures of 25 to 30C, relative humidity of 60 to 80%, and higher precipitation were associated with higher incidence. The persistence of the Kelch13 and pfcrt K76T association after adjustment suggests that expanding ART R associated parasite populations are independently associated with malaria incidence. The relationship may be bidirectional. These findings support interpreting ART R within its ecological and intervention context and integrating molecular, epidemiological, and malaria control surveillance to safeguard antimalarial efficacy.

Objectives To assess microfilaraemia, chronic lymphatic filariasis (LF)-related morbidity, and community knowledge and self-reported preventive behaviours in a rural community in northern Ghana following prolonged mass drug administration (MDA). Design Community-based cross-sectional study. Setting Birifor community, Lawra Municipality, Upper West Region, northern Ghana, from October 2024 to January 2025. Participants A total of 261 community members aged 10 years and above were selected using random sampling and participated in the study. Outcome measures Outcome measures included microfilaraemia detected by night blood microscopy, chronic LF-related morbidity identified through clinical examination, and community knowledge and self-reported preventive behaviours assessed using a structured questionnaire. Results No microfilariae were detected (0/261; 0%). Chronic lymphoedema was identified in five individuals (1.9%), all aged over 40 years. Awareness of LF was high (95.8%), yet only 39.5% of participants demonstrated good community knowledge and self-reported preventive behaviours. Misconceptions regarding transmission, particularly beliefs that LF is hereditary or caused by spiritual factors, were common. MDA participation was high (93.1%). All five individuals with chronic lymphoedema reported loss of income, and three (60%) reported additional household income loss due to caregiving responsibilities. Conclusions No microfilaraemia was detected, suggesting very low transmission in the study area, although residual infection cannot be excluded. Chronic LF-related morbidity and gaps in community knowledge persist despite high MDA participation. Sustained surveillance using more sensitive diagnostic approaches, together with morbidity management and disability prevention, community education and support for affected households, will be important to sustain LF elimination efforts.

Importance: Coccidioidomycosis, also known as Valley fever, is a serious fungal disease caused by inhaling Coccidioides spores aerosolized from the soil. Despite rising public health concern, the distribution and incidence of coccidioidomycosis in the US remain poorly characterized as not all states are required to report cases, and case under-ascertainment is presumed to be high, particularly outside of the endemic region. Objective: To estimate monthly, county-level coccidioidomycosis incidence across the US while accounting for widespread under-ascertainment. Design, Setting, and Participants: We integrated multisource data, including human cases diagnosed in electronic health records, serological testing of dogs, and ecological and sociodemographic predictors, in a machine learning model estimating monthly, county-level coccidioidomycosis incidence. The model was trained on surveillance data from Arizona and California from 2013 to 2023, then applied to predict incidence in states across the contiguous US over the same time period. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incidence of coccidioidomycosis at the monthly county level. Results: The model predicted coccidioidomycosis incidence from 2013 to 2023 for 3,108 counties from all states in the contiguous US. The model identified 60 counties in non-reporting states where predicted incidence was [&ge;]2 cases per 100,000 population (considered moderate to high incidence). In states with mandatory reporting outside of Arizona and California, the model predicted county-level incidence rates that were 28% higher (95% bootstrap interval, 0.1%-69.8%) than those captured in national surveillance, equating to a total of 608 potentially missed cases per year (95% bootstrap interval, 340-964). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, the model quantified case under-ascertainment for coccidioidomycosis relative to Arizona and California, and highlighted the potential for alternative data sources to fill in gaps in mandatory reporting. Estimating incidence while accounting for under-ascertainment and non-reporting may help efforts to improve public and physician awareness and to detect emergence in new regions.

Implementing vector control interventions against infectious diseases is operationally challenging, with delivery and population uptake taking considerable time within a community. Studies have suggested that the slow mass drug administration (MDA) of the endectocide, ivermectin, may have contributed to the lower epidemiological impact against malaria observed in recent cluster-randomised controlled trials, although evidence supporting this hypothesis is lacking. It is unclear whether interventions which have short but highly effective durations of entomological impact are more impactful than tools which kill the same number of mosquitoes but over a longer period. Transmission dynamics mathematical models can be used to explore the trade-offs between product profiles and investigate how different implementation periods could influence disease control. First, we use a simple vector-borne disease compartmental model to explore the epidemiological impact of killing the same number of mosquitoes over 10, 30 or 90 days. We find that for different mosquito-killing periods, the total number of cases averted is similar, although the observable impact may depend on when efficacy is assessed. Secondly, we adapted an existing malaria transmission model and simulated the fast and slow deployment of an effective endectocide MDA campaign in different seasonal settings. In perennial and seasonal settings and for a given coverage, slow MDA deployment averts more clinical cases of malaria than a fast synchronised distribution (completed in a single day, although the difference was modest). The benefits of the intervention depend on how well-timed a deployment is relative to the peak of the transmission season, with the efficacy of an ivermectin-like endectocide MDA being up to approximately 42% lower if started late. The work indicates that the time taken to complete MDA campaigns is unlikely to drive major differences in the effectiveness of short-lived endectocides and showcases how transmission dynamics models can be used to support epidemiological trial interpretation.